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the 2008 republican national convention
surprising, i think
posted by: publius 09:01 1.21.10
cindy mccain as the face of noh8's campaign for gay marriage:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2010/jan/21/cindy-mccain-noh8-gay-marriage

i still maintain, as per my post on 9.4.08 that she is super scary and can probably shoot lasers out of her eyes...but i must say this ad campaign was unexpected...
orrin hatch
posted by: publius 01:31 9.7.08
for a long time now, thanks to someone on tentfort in 2004, i get random emails from republican type folks...one of those folks is orrin hatch.

here's the beginning of what orrin has to say about the convention...

___________

I'm on my way back from the convention right now and I can hardly describe the energy building around John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Sarah's speech rocked the house!
____________

now, i'm just me, but is there anyone in the known universe who can see orrin hatch using the phrase "rocked the house"?

didn't think so.

carry on.
I hear that
posted by: rabble-rouser 13:02 9.6.08
BUT, for the most part, notwithstanding the fact that the board hasn't endorsed a democrat for president since 1812, I find the editorial page of the Tribune to be fair and sober. The paper's stated principles--personal liberty, small government, free markets--are stated on its website and the board makes its endorsements accordingly. More importantly, the paper doesn't come off as a party hack, at least to me, on a daily basis. It has harshly ripped republicans federal and state government on numerous occassion. It's voice is part of the moderate wing of the republican party, and it regularly rejects the wacko base.

Also, the Tribune is uniquely situated in this national election because it knows Obama better than any other serious newpaper, it has openly praised Obama for 12 years and knows that he has a record, yet it's politics are more in line with McCain's. So it's interesting to me to read the board's insights on this election, even if they are taken with a grain of salt and we know how the endorsement will come down.

So while I can't argue with the fact that the paper clearly favors the republican platform, I disagree that the paper serves no purpose when it comes to politics, espeically this year.
id' think twice about citing the tribune for much when it comes to politics...
posted by: simplicissimus 12:12 9.6.08
the LAST (AND ONLY) TIME the tribune editorial board endorsed a democrat was in 1872, when greeley took on the absurdly corrupt us grant.

and that includes 1940 and 1944. hell, they had dewey beating truman (perhaps you've seen the photo) in 1948.

that paper's board is so notoriously republican that in The West Wing, the paper made a huge splash when it gave positive treatment to the ethnic democrat Santos ... one more reason why this whole year is feeling scripted.
The Chicago Tribune
posted by: rabble-rouser 11:37 9.6.08
Kind of a nice perspective from the editorial page:

"Both McCain and Obama are running against Washington. Their speeches, though, distinguish the remedies they prescribe. Obama sees Washington as unresponsive: He suggests that under his White House, the federal government would take on the many problems he chronicled at length in his speech, including addiction to oil, failing schools and health care. He would spend more, but his Washington would resolve those problems.

"McCain portrayed today's Washington as me-first-ism incarnate, a place where too many politicians ask what their country can do for them and their pet constituencies. McCain wants a leaner Washington that invites citizens to ask what they can do for their country—a government that can 'stand at your side and not in your way.'

"In their acceptance speeches—and in their careers—McCain and Obama have performed exceptionally well. The next 60 days should be a bracing, engaging contest. They're a remarkable pairing, these two. We've all said that for months. John McCain proved his half of it again Thursday night."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-0905edit1sep05,0,646130.story
wait a second...
posted by: simplicissimus 20:15 9.5.08
as somehow the arbiter on this one, i have to say:

reaction to the speech was 50/50, so it sounds like it was a straight up the middle unremarkable affair.

the read i'm getting, and whatever the press says ultimately becomes reality is: not horrible. not great. and pretty much what you'd expect.

which i sort of think is what hb was saying.

ps: hb, tell your boys to tell palin to mellow out or put her in front of the press (and i truly am not concern trolling here): if she doesn't start doing some unscripted interviews, and keeps red-lining it, nobody is going to feel bad for her -- her greatest strength going into her speech on wednesday -- and she's going to get shivved.
stock black people for mccain!
posted by: publius 18:25 9.5.08
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/5/153224/4904/749/588112
camdolphin, isidorus and i....
posted by: publius 17:26 9.5.08
are mavericks. that's the whole story.
well, me and simpli and 98% of the pundits out there can have one opinion...
posted by: horsebeater 17:19 9.5.08
... and izzi and publius and camdolphin are free to have another.

*********

as far as camdolphin/alan colmes goes, I wasn't trying to "fox" you. The message that I got was that you felt your reaction to hillary was tainted by personal dislike but that if you set that aside it was a "fine speech." Here, you're saying you are setting aside your political dislike for mccain, but the speech sucks.
well...
posted by: horsebeater 17:13 9.5.08
... I think the Biden lesson is that if you use racially insensitive terms about Obama ("clean and articulate") then you get appointed to a major post in his administration.

that's what that westmoreland guy is trying for: sec'y of defense.
yeah....
posted by: simplicissimus 17:06 9.5.08
but, even still, who is more uppity?

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/john-farrell/2008/9/5/mccain-speech-i-me-mine.html
I've been Foxed!
posted by: camdolphin 15:49 9.5.08
What I said about Hillary's speech:

"I can't stand listening to her. I hadn't realized just how trite her hand motions are. I'm sure it was a fine speech, but I was just so bored. So bored that I didn't notice how generic her endorsement of Obama was. McCain is already attacking that she didn't talk about his readiness, how she respects him, how he is in any way qualified other than being the democratic nominee.

She did what she was supposed to do - throw her support behind Obama. But she didn't go whole hog, and so far this convention has not been a hit for the dems - McCain should be happy."

How HB characterized it: "camdolphin on hillary: 'fine speech.'"

To clarify, I'd lump Hillary's and McCain's speeches in the same boat, but McCain's was worse because he couldn't handle his crowd.
I've been Foxed!
posted by: camdolphin 15:47 9.5.08
the green screen...
posted by: publius 12:35 9.5.08
this one just keeps getting better...

so the green screen, as simplicissimus points out, what actually the lawn in a large image of a building. what building was that, you may ask?

walter reed.

walter reed MIDDLE SCHOOL.

as far as anyone can tell, the oh-so-tech savvy folks at the mccain campaign appear to have googled "walter reed" and grabbed an image of a middle school in california instead of the veterans hospital in dc.

this is so amusing and fitting that i hardly know what to do with myself.

mccain...the team that can't google straight.

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/5/111829/9917/18/587802
dan savage
posted by: publius 10:12 9.5.08
not one of his more interesting efforts, but it is for cnn after all...

http://us.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/04/questions.savage/index.html
they were not in the same ballpark
posted by: publius 09:49 9.5.08
much as hillary's folksy crap sets my teeth on edge, she can deliver a speech when she needs to and clearly has command over her audience and material.

mccain had neither. his delivery was abysmal and there times where he was clearly repeating things he didn'treally understand (like the "alternative" energy options.)

you can try to paint my response to his speech as tainted by my politics, and i'm willing to grant you that my intense dislike for the republican crowd and the republican agenda made it difficult for me to sit through his entire speech. but putting that aside, it was simply a bad speech. quite frankly i'm a bit amazed that this is even up for debate, but so it goes.
It was pretty bad
posted by: isidorus 09:43 9.5.08
My two cents, for what it's worth:
I have certain expectations of oratory from politicians. I expect them to be able to deliver a well crafted speech some charisma and appropriate emphasis in places, etc. This is not partisan. To wit, a list of politicians that I feel are pretty much average as far as this goes: John Edwards, Rudy Giuliani, Hillary Clinton, Bush 41, Bob Dole, Al Gore (post 2000). Here are some that are below average: Bush 43, John Kerry, Al Gore (pre-2000), John McCain. Above average politicians include Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Fred Thompson and Barack Obama.

Of these, McCain is the worst, and his speech last night seemed like an average outing for him. So for my money, it was a bad speech.
posted by: horsebeater 09:22 9.5.08
camdolphin on hillary: "fine speech"

publius on hillary: "did what she had to do"

I thought McCain's speech was better than hillary's. You don't have to agree with that, exactly, but I think anyone being fair would at least say that they were in the same ballpark. So how McCain's can be awful what Hillary's wasn't?
that was a bad speech
posted by: publius 00:07 9.5.08
if by a good speech we mean the ability to effectively deliver your message in and exude some degree of command over the material you are trying to present.

mccain, i am sorry, bordered on doddering at times...an old man trying to come off like a tough young(er) man, which only makes him dodder a bit more.

my saying that was a bad speech had little (well, as little as i can be reasonably expected to count it) to do with my extensive disagreements with john mccain over policy. it was simply a mediocre bit of political pablum horribly delivered.
wait...are you kidding?
posted by: simplicissimus 23:57 9.4.08
they (accidentally) went back to the green screen?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/04/mccains-lime-green-backgr_n_124102.html

wow, i would expect this out of the dems, but the republicans are usually sharper than this.
It's judged by the viewer
posted by: camdolphin 23:37 9.4.08
And the American public saw a guy who has a 96 year-old mother and remembers Pearl Harbor. He blew easy lines "Palin worked with her hands and nose ... [I mean] knows that..." The introduction of New Hampshire (which you know will always get a cheer) to be immediately followed by the fact that the guy from NH is dead.

These are small things - but to the viewer, they are distracting. You spend time looking for more mistakes (coupled with the protesters) rather than what he was saying. And his meat and potatos were served poorly. He was blinking frantically and totally stiff during those portions of his speech. He was much different when he spoke about his personal story - meaning he could do, he just didn't really believe in the speech. He didn't own it.

End of the day, will this matter? No. Krauthammer said that it's the convention where you'll remember the VP's speech, not the president's. But these are opportunities, and McCain blew this one.
i didn't see it...
posted by: simplicissimus 23:36 9.4.08
as i said (except the green screen ... which i assume was not an actual green screen), but i've seen the clips and i'm going to with hb on this:

(once again, judging a speech by what is *possible* not what is *perfect*)

mccain's "sweet spot" is that he's mccain. solid, dependable, almost maytag-man-like in its consistency. he isn't going to get the under-40 crowd. he isn't going to give a stem-winder. he just needs to be mccain, and it's impossible for him to be anything else.

the chatter on the teevee, though, is not exactly effusive.

i'm honestly wondering (especially with my education in the real baseball of politics this last year) whether there aren't some people in that hall -- and across the republican country -- who aren't thinking to themselves, "who cares about mccain, we'd be happier running palin up in 2012.
ummmm...
posted by: horsebeater 23:26 9.4.08
.... guys, that wasn't a bad speech. it was a good one (not great, but good). if you think it bad, then essentially you're saying that you judge a speech depending upon whether it matches your politics, which is fine, but that's not really what I mean when I say "good speech" or "bad speech"

certainly it was much much better than mccain's past prepared speeches, particularly the lousy speech after his NH victory.

the idea that he's "doddering" is just ridiculous too. c'mon.

*********

the crowd was chanting u-s-a too much overall, but at the start they were doing it to drown out protesters, so it's hard to fault that.

NBC explained that the cameras were controlled by a pool (in part to explain why so much time was spent on the protesters), so we should have all seen the same images no matter what channel.
McCain dropped that ball
posted by: camdolphin 23:18 9.4.08
Jesus, someone take him backstage and have him practice. You could actually see which lines he thought were stupid bullshit. That was laughable. He didn't come alive until he talked about living in a box. I saw the protesters on NBC - anyone know if they were shown on Fox?

Juan Williams is selling himself out on Fox now.
where can i pick up a copy oft the snappy new nu-cuntry single...
posted by: publius 23:07 9.4.08
"we're all just raisin' mccain".

well, i suppose once obama wins they can repurpose that song for a viagra ad...

cindy mccain: "it's true....they ARE raising mccain!"
oh wait...
posted by: publius 22:59 9.4.08
i have this pow story i'd like to tell you...not sure you've ever heard it before...
this speech is painful
posted by: publius 22:54 9.4.08
you get the feeling mccain doesn't even understand half of what he's saying...i'd love to hear him define each of the "new" energy solutions he mentioned.

one of the only things i agree with mccain on is the need for more nuclear power...i don't understand how this doesn't occupy a more prominent position on the democratic slate.

wow...mccain is linking, al-qaida, iran and russia in something like a new axis of evil..."i'll work to establish good relations with russia"...yeah, i'm sure that'll happen...

this monotone delivery is disconcerting...the stresses are in all the wrong places, there are odd pauses, creepy smirks/half-smiles...

ok...i'm done...this is like shooting (old) fish in a barrel...





is it over yet?
posted by: simplicissimus 22:48 9.4.08
i snuck a peak and saw a really jarring green screen. though i have to believe given his prior experiences with a green background that i clicked at the exact moment the screen was shifting from flaming towers to the iwo jima memorial (i kid, i kid).
well....
posted by: publius 22:37 9.4.08
he's definitely making a clean break with bush with this "we republicans lost the peoples trust, and we're going to change that".

he's essentially throwing bushco under the bus, which even i (even i!) have to give him props for...i happen to think he's full of shit, but i give him props for working it into his speech.
i'm sorry...
posted by: publius 22:27 9.4.08
but when the gathered masses voice their applause at everything they like and everything they don't like by screaming "u-s-a! u-s-a! u-s-a!" we've officially reached my definition of ghoulish.

and good god damn mccain is a terrible public speaker...he comes across as...well...as a doddering old fool...my friends...

the man has no sense of timing or oratory at all.

i went almost as far as i could...
posted by: simplicissimus 22:19 9.4.08
but the rudy-palin affair from last night was my own personal "final nail in the john mccain as a candidate" moment.

i really find it kind of sad, and i mean that. i know he's gotta win the thing, and i accept it. but it's so sad to see somebody who i had, and probably one day will again have, respect for debase himself like this.

i will be checking for updates, naturally.
listening to republicans...
posted by: publius 21:42 9.4.08
channel lincoln is so mind-numbingly painful i want to reach through my computer screen and strangle cindy mccain...
this cindy mccain video...
posted by: publius 21:38 9.4.08
is making me ill....

i keep waiting for them to bring up mccain referring to her as a cunt...probably not going to happen.

i still maintain that cindy mccain can shoot lasers out of her eyes like cyclops from the x-men. she is drop-dead scary.

and listening to what gets applause at this convention (palin selling the ex-governors plane on ebay, cindy mccain loving fast cars, etc.) i think the ideal republican candidate would be cameron diaz's character from "there's something about mary".
Palin
posted by: camdolphin 10:40 9.4.08
My take is that she gave a very effective speech with nothing of substance. I watched her and thought she was very good. And I felt a deep abhorrence toward her.

Rabble, you're exactly right about the bridge. That should have been the dem's response to her speech:

Palin in 2006:

"We need to come to the defense of Southeast Alaska when proposals are on the table like the bridge, and not allow the spinmeisters to turn this project or any other into something that's so negative," Palin said in August 2006, according to the Ketchikan Daily News.

The Anchorage Daily News quoted her in October 2006 as saying she would continue state funding for the bridge. "The window is now, while our congressional delegation is in a strong position to assist," she said.

Palin in 2008: "I told the Congress, 'Thanks, but no thanks,' on that Bridge to Nowhere"

If it's okay to lobby for earmarks as a state governor, then why'd she stop building the bridge when AK got the money?

Yes, she said nothing. But one thing at a time. She was eloquent and tough. I don't envy Biden. It's going to be tough to debate her - it's going to be really hard to map that one out. She's positioning herself with some Teflon - it's not what she said months ago, it's how you feel about her now. And the base loves her.

Most importantly, she has everyone on the edge of their seat, wanting to hear more from her - on both sides of the aisle.
i had this trouble with the dems, too...
posted by: simplicissimus 10:17 9.4.08
i'm grading on a curve. not what is objectiively good, but just what was possible.

her sole goal is clearly to bring the right wing home. and she did it. the more i think about it, i more i think it's pretty clear that mccain is pulling a bush 2.0 -- pusing the base to a red-line to get the turnout to win the election.

they could win for all i know, but i can tell you this: my consistent wondering about who is going to lead the republican party should mccain lose has now been answered: it's sarah palin.

and as a dem, i couldn't be happier. that party is a collapsing star and instead of going the mccain 2000, schwarteznegger route, they look like they are retreating into baseland. the dems learned this in the 1980s: it's a really bad idea.
Palin
posted by: rabble-rouser 09:34 9.4.08
I completely disagree that her speech was very, very good. The only thing I learned last night about Sarah Palin is that she is effective (almost as good as Rudy!) at insulting the opposition party leader and his wife. I heard nothing about what she would do about jobs, energy, or war. Instead we learned that being a community organizer is now a laugh line. Obama made a strong argument in his speech that this election is too important to piddle over small things. Yet here was Sarah Palin, introducing herself to the country as a serious candidate for vice president, and using that opportunity to take a shot at styrofoam pillars. I just wasn’t impressed.

And the bridge to nowhere is not that nuanced. She fought for the money to fund that project. She was photographed holding up a signed that said "Nowhere, Alaska." And when she got the money, she decided to do use it for something else. So, to turn her own phrase a bit, she said thanks AND no thanks to the bridge.
funny how much hb and i agree...
posted by: simplicissimus 04:45 9.4.08
i had the exact same thought re: whether or not the red meat was a little too much - i just figured i was being overly-sensitive.

though i'll go one further: sexist or not, one of the thing palin had going for her was it was to the point that when the speech began even i was rooting for her a little. i felt no small amount of sympathy. needless to say, the pretty much dissipated.

i'm not saying she could play the victim card or that it would be smart. but as we learned with hillary: when it comes to women politicians, a natural advantage (fare or not) is that when they're being "nice" they get a shit load more sympathy then when they are the pitbull. and that sympathy is no small thing.
2 things...
posted by: publius 23:48 9.3.08
1. i am happy that "ghoulish" has become something of an rnc litmus test. note that i moved on monday and as a result haven't seen any of the convention, so i can't comment on it's actual level of ghoulishness...but rudy was there, so i think i have a pretty good idea.

2. how cool would it be to be in high school and be known in the national media as "sex on skates"...odds those crazy kids' (impending political shotgun ) marriage lasts two years? 15%.

overall...
posted by: horsebeater 23:36 9.3.08
...

well, GAME ON, I guess. Red meat night for sure. I'm not sure I get the strategy here. Palin is looking more and more like a play to win the base, and clearly the rudy and palin speeches were designed with that in mind. McCain is trying to run against the media.

It's the 2004 strategy all over again, pretty much, but why forfeit all of mccain's natural advantages?

Other thoughts:

(1) The bad part about this is that the muzzle comes off joe biden.

(2) That said, after that speech, I no longer fear a Biden / Palin debate.

(3) I was sad to see a number of irrelevant and unfair attacks mixed in with the relevant and fair ones.

The "the only man to ever actually fight for you..." line was particularly ghoulish.

(4) "Being a mayor is like being a community organizer ... except with actual responsibility" was pretty good.

(5) They let "sex on skates" onto the stage post-speech. man, that kid's life really changed in a hurry.

rabble....
posted by: horsebeater 23:30 9.3.08
.... i heard rudy's comment as saying this:

"Obama has said that we lost the war. Then who won? Al Quada? Bin Laden?"

I can't say I was paying perfect attn, but that's what I heard
palin time...
posted by: simplicissimus 23:08 9.3.08
very, very strong speech.

great for the base, which is where mccain seems to be going with this.

and ballsy to come out swinging. the fun part -- the interviews, etc. -- are yet to come, but she's certainly not going anywhere.
Rudy Rudy Rudy
posted by: rabble-rouser 22:56 9.3.08
I can't believe, after all this time, he says if we lose in Iraq then Al Quaida and Bin Laden win. Unreal. And the crowd goes wild.

He also made a good point about Obama's experience: he hasn't run a city, he hasn't run a state, he hasn't run a business, and he hasn't run a military unit. All true. But has McCain done any of those things?
who was that hawaiin governor?
posted by: simplicissimus 22:29 9.3.08
dude, she should have been the pick.

oh, wait, she isn't white is she?

another "USA! USA!"? come on!

rudy hates celebrities! with their glitz and their cross dressing with the rockettes, and their living with a gay couple a little dog after their 2nd marriage collapses in the newspaper. oh, wait...

oh, rudy, with your scary mocking of community organizers.

though i like the "present" call, good stuff (though completely fast and loose with the facts -- this is done by *everyone* in the state house).

um, was the "only in america" line supposed to be elicit a laugh?

this experience stuff is gold: except for that whole palin thing. if i had one of those little focus group dials, even i would give it a 8 or 9, why the fuck did mccain punt on it so fucking poorly?

"drill, baby, drill" ... only in america (laugh line), though it is better than "USA! USA!".

terrorism ... but, wait, no 9/11?

insult the terrorists!

9/11! Victory over terror! Surge! Dems are traitors! We won in Iraq*

* results may vary.

Good stuff on the flip-flop issue. Of course, if you want to talk flip flops.

Very smart play going with Rudy into Palin - the base is going to be tuning in and this is right up their ally.

Good line about Georgia. Pretty absurd, but good.

Aryan kid shouting USA!, he must not have gotten the memo.

Rudy hates glitz and flash! Rudy loves religion! Rudy hates sexism! The Republicans hate sexism!

Weak ending.

I'll give him a 8.5 (USA! USA! and general scariness deduction).


mittens, mittens, mittens
posted by: simplicissimus 21:46 9.3.08
you just called obama "well spoken" on msnbc.

uh, why is it so hard for people just to simply not use that phrase when talking about black folks? good god, man!
rudy? is that you?
posted by: simplicissimus 21:43 9.3.08
no, it's happy mike huckabee with a side of scary!

i like this guy, though, he's a real wildman.

i'm i the only one completely confused by the desk story? it must be because i hate america, but that was the most tortured, meandering, not-quite-apt tale i've ever heard.

8.0.

would have scored higher but he ventured a little into "scaring nelson" territory.

i don't understand why the republicans don't get a simple fact: with the exception of 2004, in the last few decades scary republicans just don't win.

(though he also gets a plus .5 for not comparing the treatment of palin to the civil rights struggle -- and for a second there it seemed like it was going to happen ---- phew!).
just one more shot...
posted by: simplicissimus 21:20 9.3.08
mittens, you rocked the house! but, one thing, the republicans have been in power in the white house for 8 years, in the senate for 5 of the the last 8, and the house for 6 of the last eight.

i know it's a petty detail.

the israeli judges give him a 6.5 -- he has a pulse, which is a big plus for this convention, and his delivery was pretty good. but he got a -2.0 due to overwhelming cognitive dissonance and -.5 for eliciting the "USA! USA!" chant.

up next: rudy? please be rudy.
mittens...
posted by: simplicissimus 21:11 9.3.08
i am SO going to miss you, you scourge of the east coast elite!

and i excuse you for not recognizing that republicans have held the white house for 20 of the 28 years since 1980 (from when spending has doubled) ... doubtless, you -- at least -- were a democrat for a good 10 of those years.

ps: great job on universal health care in mass!
quick thoughts on last night...
posted by: horsebeater 15:51 9.3.08
...

I watched a lot on CSPAN, so I saw a lot of unfiltered convention:

(1) They had a thing on Bridget's adoption, which walked right up to the exploitative line and stepped right across it.

Add to this that Cindy McCain seemed to be intentionally avoiding eye contact with Bridget just made it all very creepy. Also, Bridget is as big as a house now and had this look on her face like "god I wish I wasn't here" which is probably normal for a fat teenage girl who is going to be on national TV. It just seemed like a shame.

(2) W was not very good, even for him. The timing of the speech with him in DC wasn't very good. The "angry left"? Just weird.

(3) Laura Bush wasn't very convincing either.

(4) Jesus Christ, when did Bush 41 get so fucking old? He looked like he was 100 and is clearly quickly on the downslope.

(5) What's up with Fred Thompson grunting so much? It was disturbing after a while.

Thompson also said "all of the McCain children are here" which, ummm, I'm pretty sure is only true if you desire to ignore McCain's first marriage.

(6) I had a hard time with the photos cycling through during the speeches. A little too lifetime movie network for me.

(7) Thompson's speech was reaonably good. It was a 6.5 or so. When a 6.5 is your best speech of the night, you might have a problem.

(8) Lieberman's speech was passionless in standard Joe style. I thought it was interesting on several levels, but I think it was more fun for political junkies who get bored with standard speeches, since this was a bit of an anomoly.

I really liked the argument that even Bill Clinton reached across the aisle to the GOP to solve various problems (free trade, welfare reform), but Obama doesn't look like he's willing to meet in the middle on ANYTHING. I don't think the speech was a game changer, but it's the type of thing that quietly snags 0.5% of the voters. It all adds up....
i'm telling you, i disagree...
posted by: simplicissimus 11:30 9.3.08
surely mccain can win it, but george w. bush created, and then completely fucked up, that coalition.

for every social conservative that gets turned on by palin's fundamentalist church, there's a suburban mom or a jew who is turned off by it.

for every foreign policy hawk that's turned on by mccain's hawkishness, one is turned off by palin as the second in command.

for every woman who is psyched about a woman in office, another is frightened by palin's stance that abortion should be outlawed unless a doctor determines the woman *will* die if she gives birth.

for every econommic conservative who has an orgasm over tax cuts, there's another who sees the weak dollar, the sub-prime and housing messes, and budget issues, and realizes it ain't nearly that simple.

---

i have not, nor will i ever, say that mccain can't win this. all's i'm saying is that the coalition you're talking about was a perfect storm when combined with george w. bush: he was a guy who had establishment cred, fundamentalist cred, charisma (there was a time), and had been virtually created -- starting in 1994 -- by some very, very sharp political minds. as a result, he felt wall street to the wall streeters, born again to the born agains, a tough guy to the tough guys, a hawk to the hawks, a tax-cutter to the tax-cutters, a compasionate conservative to the middle, and soft and nice to the subruban housewives.

and so far, i've seen nothing about palin that says she's anything beyond a pick for the base. which doesn't make it a great pick, it just makes it a pick that is not a game changer.




I think it's on for the elephants
posted by: rabble-rouser 10:41 9.3.08
Looks to me like they're shoring up the coalition between the economic conservatives, national security hawks, and the newly motivated social conservatives (who can deliver a presidency)...with a small kicker from women who care more about seeing a woman in high office than anything else. That's a lot of people, holmes.
i can't quite get a bead on ...
posted by: simplicissimus 08:39 9.3.08
exactly what the *message* was supposed to be last night.

fred thompson gives a pretty good, pretty raw red meat speech, which is what he does and does well. but can you really attack obama for giving a teleprompter speech when you're giving a teleprompter speech? though, all in all, not bad.

but lieberman? how on earth do you follow thompson's red meat with a post-partisan appeal? and the delegates just seemed not all that in to what he was selling -- lots of odd pauses for applause (or at least lines i expected would get it) followed by silence or scattered clapping.

the bigger question, though, which remains unanswered: whose convention is this, john mccain's or sarah palin's? and the question that flows inexorably from their: whose party is this?

and this is what i've been pimping for the last 6 months: the republican base is utterly delusional when it comes to this question. they truly seem to feel that the road to salvation runs through sarah palin, while it seems obvious, at least to me, that if they want to start nominating candidates like sarah palin the party is in deep, deep trouble.

is this how republicans felt when watching the dems in the 1980s?

---

i expect palin to give a very good speech tonight, and after the last five days, the press to go especially easy on her (i mean, the expectations are so low) - whatever you say about them, they always need a fresh narrative.

i wish i could take credit...
posted by: simplicissimus 22:44 9.2.08
but i lifted this from another site discussing lieberman's speech:

"And the Roy Cohn Memorial Award for the most embarrassing Jew of the year goes to . . . "
denver....
posted by: publius 21:41 9.2.08
was pretty damned quiet for the first few nights...but i have no doubt that there is a large contingent of old, white, wealthy men ready to ejaculate in their dockers when palin makes her appearance...
nothing ghoulish yet...!
posted by: simplicissimus 21:10 9.2.08
i think the stage is really cool, and perfect to make mccain and the republicans look more dynamic - they are always better at this stuff.

is it me, or is the convention hall / crowd much smaller than denver?

and the crowd a lot quieter and more subdued?

(then again, this is pretty much the b-team part of the show and watching conventions on Public Television -- which I highly recommend -- always makes them seem a lot "quieter" and less jarring.
phil gram...
posted by: simplicissimus 17:17 9.2.08
whiners! economic illiterates!*

* this statement does not apply to people attending the republican national convention.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMKGayf6JoDc

---

you'd really think that he'd be smarter than this.
rudy, lieberman. fred thompson and the switcheroo
posted by: simplicissimus 11:00 9.2.08
it's now pretty much beyond question that mccain is attempting to pull a pretty big strategic switcheroo when it comes to his campaign themes.

the signs are all over the place, but really began in earnest last friday with how they rolled palin out (reformer, women, maverick).

then, on sunday, joe fucking lieberman is talking up mccain as the candidate of change.

and today we learn that rudy -- the keynote speaker, the guy that puts the ghoul in ghoiulish hate fest -- haa been bumped for lieberman and grandpa fred thompson.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/09/giuliani_out_thompson_and_lieb.php

now, surely they lost a day of convention. but to dump your fucking keynote speaker? i mean, beyond the president and vice president, and in this case president bush, isn't the keynote sort of the biggest deal?

rudy is a great attack dog, but not necessarily the guy who is going to talk about change. and, for that, he's gone.

i don't fault them, i don't blame them, i don't even really care. but it seems pretty clear that there must have been some pretty damning polling, evidence, etc. that attacking obama's experience and celebrity was never going to get them over the hump.

but that's what gives me so much glee about the republican party: their base is ecstatic about a candidate who is dragging mccain down. man, i can't even imagine what is going to happen to this party if mccain loses.
hurricane panurge: a complete and total wash...
posted by: simplicissimus 21:15 9.1.08
mccain gets some points for not doing something that was totally untenable ... i mean, they couldn't go forward, and the republicans are absolutely BLESSED to get bush and cheney out of their speaking spots. the labor day launch was likely very specifically planned: if you were mccain would you want bush and cheney on prime time? so, in that sense, this was a stroke of luck for the republicans.

the republicans lose a little here, too: a chance to get four straight days of feeding their story line to the willing press (which is all these conventions are good for, anyhow). they'll get their crack, but it won't be with such a captive audience.

as for the "ghoulish hate fest" line, cut us some slack. the 2004 convention and swift-boating was hard to swallow, and it's not crazy to expect more. though i don't think it's the type of thing mccain is going to do. not because he's so honorable (uh, it's 60-some days to the decision of who is going to lead the free world ... honor skipped town a few months ago), but because that really wouldn't fit with this campaign environment.

as for palin? points taken, but the fact that this is even a debate now is a sign of how much -- in my opinion -- mccain has lost: the experience card was a powerful force and he's given it up. i know, she's a vp and obama's on the top of the ticket, but all i'm saying is it's a hell of a lot -- a shit load more -- hard to take mccain as being entirely serious on this talking point.

and did you see the latest: palin was apparently a member of the "Alaska Independence Party" (you know the guys, they're interested in seceding from the union!) in the mid-1990s. i don't bring this up because i think she's a terrible secessionist, i bring it up because it's exactly the type of thing i would expect to see from somebody who is not exactly a political brain surgeon. i think the concern with her is not that she doesn't have enough experience, but that she's clearly not quite ready for prime time.
obama vs palin
posted by: horsebeater 17:25 9.1.08
really? "I managed a primary well" is the proof that you're ready to be commander in chief? Look, I'm not willing to say that Palin has more executive-type experience than Obama, but "community organizer" and "associate at law firm" and "state legislator" and "senator for 3 1/2 years" isn't all that much more impressive than "Mayor for a while" and "governor of alaska for 1 1/2 years."

It really isn't.

I'm completely willing to accept the argument that a thoughtful, smart hardworking person with the right demeanor doesn't really need a ton of executive experience to be "ready." Essentially that's what the dems have been arguing about obama, and reasonably so. But to now completely scoff at palin and to forget than obama has less high level governmental experience than pretty much any presidential candidate from either party of the past 100 years...

And when you say that the GOP convention is going to be an "unbelievably ghoulish hate fest."

It hasn't even started yet! Well at least I know in advance that there's no way in hell you're going to even try to be fair about it.
Gustav is actually very good for the GOP
posted by: isidorus 10:51 9.1.08
Obviously, Bush and Cheney aren't going to Minneapolis now. Score one for the GOP.
The GOP seems to have approached the hurricane with great care and sensitivity. Again, score.
McCain looked sort of presidential when he was talking about the changes to the schedule, the precautions, etc.
While it obviously reminds us of Katrina, we're more likely to remember what's happening right now. If obama tries to bring up katrina, he has to fight the new sense that the GOP performed well, and doing so will make Obama look bad, so his angle there is neutralized at best.
The storm doesn't seem to be quite as bad as feared. So in all likelihood things get sorted out in N.O. on Tuesday and Wednesday and the convention resumes and will wrap up on Thursday cloaked in a feeling of pride in a job well done in N.O.
Anything that shortens the convention or distracts from it is probably a good thing, given how long and boring these things are.
Obama doesn't have an attractive card to play in all of this, as far as I can tell.

Is there any way in which this storm is actually good for the dems? please explain.
lieberman
posted by: simplicissimus 11:16 8.31.08
i caught the same show.

rudy is just a chuckling, moronic bully.

lieberman, though ... he's got his own circle in hell.

after months and months of saying national security is all that matter, and it's why he's supporting mccain is now pimping palin because she's the "change agent" that washington so dearly needs.

yeah, he's one principled guy.
it begins...
posted by: publius 11:08 8.31.08
as i'm moving today i have face the nation on tv. and i was "lucky" enough to get interviews with both rudy "remember 911!" giuliani and joe "there aren't enough negative terms to describe me" lieberman.

rudy was particularly galling. as he went on and on about sarah palin's executive experience trumps obama's experience (she was, after all, mayor of a town of 7000 and is governor of a state with more elk than people). "she makes decisions, he makes speeches". when bob schaeffer, somewhat incredulously, asked if he was serious in suggesting that palin is more experienced and more ready to be commander in chief than obama, rudy just laughed that smug, bullying laugh of his for a minute or so before snorting "than obama? of course".

i do not wish rudy was not dead.

then there was lieberman, who lauded palin and rambled on about how "john" is clearly the better choice in this election.

man, i cannot wait until election day when the democrats firm up their hold on the senate and no longer need lieberman to caucus with them and can kick that bastard to curb.

oh, this convention is going to be such an unbelievably ghoulish hate-fest. horsebeater, once again we (i feel safe speaking for most on tentfort) plead with you to distance yourself from these shitsuckers. if not on policy, do it out respect for humanity and common decency.

______________

and on executive experience, i think obama can make a strong case that he put together and presided over and unprecedented primary campaign in which he toppled what everyone had assumed was an unstoppable clinton juggernaut. there he managed a budget, made tough decisions daily and showed that he wouldn't be pushed around. have to make sure not to piss of the oh-so-self-important old, white, catholic, appalachian clinton supporters.
sorry,,,,
posted by: publius 11:03 8.30.08
in case the above wasn't clear, perino is talking about bush's speech at the convention...which may very well end up being a split-screen with new orleans getting slammed again....and of course if that does happen, watching the republican shit-suckers revise history and talk about all of the capable work they did and how thanks to them new orleans is (was?) coming back will be enough to make me throw something through the television...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/08/30/gustav/index.html

my youngest brother is probably on the refugee trail from new orleans as i write this. last time i spoke to him he was buying an extra 20 gallon tank of gas to strap to the top of his car...
a stomach churning spectacle!
posted by: publius 10:55 8.30.08
best ridiculous comment i''ve head in a while...

_____________________

"This is not an opportunity to recap accomplishments of the past seven and a half years," she said. "It will not serve as a farewell to the American people, and it certainly will not attack Barack Obama."

Asked why, Perino replied, "Because he's got class."

_____________________

yes, if there's one thing that bush and his merry band of criminals have shown more than consistently than anything else, it's that they have k-l-a-s-s.

i feel ill.