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Republican Nominee, 2012
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| still... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
18:33 7.29.10 |
think it will be thune or daniels if the republicans are smart.
but whoever it is, they'll have fans of the "the streak" locked up tight:
http://wonkette.com/417039/novelty-song-writer-ray-stevens-is-the-bard-of-the-teabaggers
i will say this: from douche bag dartmouth frat boys who rap to branson, missouri d list 70-something novelty acts ... man, the republican party is a lot of things.
but cool is simply not one of them. |
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| i'm not too surpised... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
15:57 7.13.10 |
for better or worse, murdoch (and by extension fox news) is an appendage to the republican party establishment messaging network -- or is it the opposite? -- and you have gotta believe that enough people in the republican party realize that a palin candidacy would be a disaster for the party.
i'm not talking about a nomination, i'm just talking about her running. you think obama had a hillary problem? the palinistas would be millions of stand deviations worse.
so it's about time (given that many candidates are going to declare (!) in the next 6-10 months ... good god) that the knives start coming out.
my guess is that palin knows this and becomes kingmaker instead of king. |
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| o'reilley going after palin |
| posted by: horsebeater |
13:32 7.13.10 |
interesting that he's really pushing her:
http://dailycaller.com/2010/07/13/bill-oreilly-goes-rogue-on-sarah-palin-buffets-her-in-testy-exchanges/ |
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| listen up, GOP |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
21:43 6.18.10 |
your man.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/more-mitch-danielss-truce-social-issues
your man after the base of your party gets through with him:
http://www.talk2action.org/story/2010/6/15/124231/686/Front_Page/Truce_Or_Consequences_Religious_Right_Shoots_Down_Talk_Of_Cease_Fire_In_The_Culture_Wars_ |
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| Chris Christie! |
| posted by: horsebeater |
11:39 6.4.10 |
5 minutes against teachers' unions
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/06/04/gov_christie_to_teachers_unions_you_punch_them_i_punch_you_.html
He'd be good. |
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| Dale effing Peterson |
| posted by: rabble-rouser |
13:01 5.19.10 |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU7fhIO7DG0
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| Chris Christie |
| posted by: horsebeater |
14:40 5.14.10 |
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/05/13/video-chris-christie-destroys-reporter-for-calling-him-confrontational/
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| Cross Crist off the list... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
16:49 4.28.10 |
...he's apparently -- well, at leas in the "Joe Lieberman" sense -- technically no longer a Republican.
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/04/crists-declaration-of-independence-coming-in-st-pete.html
(though I would argue that Crist was crossed off the list the minute he was born gay, but ... tomayto, tomahto ... whatever) |
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| good points... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
17:01 4.8.10 |
it really is simple:
it would be difficult for a republican to win the 2012 republican primary without winning over palin supporters, but it will be impossible for a republican to win a general election in 2012 without winning over palin supporters.
it really is that simple.
i'm not sure a single republican could beat her in a contested republican primary, but even if they could two things would have to happen:
1. to beat palin, a republican would have to go far enough right to snatch some of her voters (and become unelectable in the general), or far enough to the left to win over moderates (and become unelectable in the general);
2. a palin primary loss would cause a significant portion of the palin backers to become completely alienated (you think it was bad with hillary? hillary was known as a cold, calculating, unplesant woman ... until march of 2008 magically made her a folk heroine, while palin is already beloved and revered as a personality).
---
i used to think that the republican establishment would get together to make sure an anti-palin was in the race to rally around, but now i'm thinking it isn't up to the establishment: the decision to run (and win the primary) is palin and palin's alone.
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| or scott brown |
| posted by: horsebeater |
12:34 1.20.10 |
| he's sexy |
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| if it ain't thune... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
15:51 1.6.10 |
it's mitch daniels, republican governor of indiana
i'll put $10 down, even money, on thune or daniels getting the nomination over the field (ie, the rest of humanity) so long as palin doesn't run. |
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| um... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
11:07 12.1.09 |
| we ALL believe crist is gay. |
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| plus the right believes that crist is gay... |
| posted by: horsebeater |
10:22 12.1.09 |
| ... that doesn't really help him in a GOP primary. |
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| this was just a list of the non-thune competitors... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
11:34 11.30.09 |
which is now pretty much officially gingrich, palin, mittens, jindal, pawlenty, and that cracker down in mississippi (barbour). oh, and rudy. don't forget rudy.
of these, i'd say it's really mittens and pawlenty who are close to "for sures". and i am actually beginning to believe palin's running.
all the more reason to say thune is your man if he decides to run. but the guy is destined to run for president so he's as likely as not to sit out 2012 for 2016 if he (a) thinks unseating obama is going to be too difficult; or (b) he -- and this is what would be smart -- wants to avoid the whole bloodbath that would be a palin republican primary.
the more i think about palin the more i think that if obama is @50% in approval ratings and palin is running, she's going to get the nods. a smart republican would hold fire until 2016 and let palin's folks burn themselves out. |
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| what happened to thune? |
| posted by: publius |
11:05 11.30.09 |
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| to recap... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
09:46 11.30.09 |
a horrific murder of 4 cops in washington state.
well, the guy that (likely) did it was pardoned by huckabee when he was governor of arkansas.
http://www.arktimes.com/blogs/arkansasblog/2009/11/ark_excon_of_interest_in_slayi.aspx
now, that there'd be any political fallout (absent some really sketchy things connected to the pardon) is pretty absurd, of course.
but the two magic words -- "willie horton" -- tell you all you need to know about situations like this.
in other words: you remember that guy named huckabee that was the "other" one social conservatives loved? well, you can kiss him goodbye for 2012. if it's true he pardoned the guy who killed 4 cops he's NEVER getting the republican nomination.
so now we're down to gingrich, palin, mittens, crist, jindal, pawlenty, and that cracker down in mississippi.
and since crist is now the right's bete-noir, i'd say he's off the list, too.
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| no need to wait until the winter of 2012, here's your guy: |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
10:28 7.22.09 |
john thune.
gingrich, palin, mittens, huckabee, crist, jindal, pawlenty, that cracker down in mississippi? either too much baggage, not enough horsepower, too far to the left to get nominated, or too divisive.
but this guy? i'm telling you: he's the one. write it in ink.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/072209morning-fix-thune.html?hpid=topnews |
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| 7 out of 10 favor... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
17:27 7.15.09 |
| http://www.runnersworld.com/photo/sarahpalin/slide7.html |
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| hb, that's perfect... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
22:51 6.25.09 |
| because silvio berlusconi is a kind of a rapey type of guy, no? |
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| posted by: horsebeater |
18:55 6.25.09 |
| the use of the word "conquest" when describing sex has always felt a little rapey to me. |
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| compare and contrast... |
| posted by: publius |
12:30 6.25.09 |
the weepy mea culpas of american politicians with italian pm silvio berlusconi...
___________
In an interview with Italian magazine "Chi," the 72-year old denied he had ever paid for sex.
''I've never paid a woman. I never understood where the satisfaction is when you're missing the pleasure of conquest,'' Berlusconi told Chi.
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| Genuinely decent, self-reflective, interesting guy? |
| posted by: camdolphin |
09:32 6.25.09 |
I know the Clinton thing was supposedly more about lying than sex, but his comeuppance is due.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/24/sanford-was-harsh-critic_n_220325.html |
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| suprise, suprise |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
22:10 6.24.09 |
it's an affair.
who cares? anyhow, it's so unfair to get to read excerpts of emails but i have to say that after reading them i actually like this guy *more*.
not because he's a cheater, but because he seems like a genuinely decent, self-reflective, interesting guy. yeah, the sweet talk is a little much, but if all the words i ever wrote to women were ever made available for public consumption i would be the most made fun of man in the world.
http://www.thestate.com/sanford/story/839350.html |
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| dude... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
12:12 6.24.09 |
do you have any idea how *depressing* it was to be a dem in the first part of 2005?
however, i have to say a wonkette commenter said it best: it's almost like we should be paying the republican party for the entertainment it's been providing recently. |
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| i broke my vow and checked this... |
| posted by: horsebeater |
09:46 6.24.09 |
| ... and now i'll be depressed all fucking day. |
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| wow... |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
08:46 6.24.09 |
i held off on this one because it seemed to be sort of a non-story.
mark sanford, telegenic governor of sc who was/is looking to run in 2012, disappears for 5 days. over father's day weekend. with his wife not knowing where he. with his phone turned off.
weird, but not the end of the world.
but then i read that law enforcement actually traced his cell phone, so somebody was concerned.
his staff then says yesterday he was hiking the appalachian trail.
except today we learn he was in argentia (?)
it's weird enough that the sitting governor would leave the state with no way to be reached and with nobody knowing where he is. not the end of the world, but weird. and certainly knocks him off his 2012 game.
http://www.thestate.com/local/story/838823.html
to quote chris matthews -- something i don't often do -- the field of republican challengers for 2012 is like ten little indians. one by one they get crossed off the list.
for the record, i think john thune of south dakota is now my favorite to be the 2012 challenger. |
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| thanks to publius for fixing this thread title... |
| posted by: horsebeater |
23:19 2.28.09 |
| .... i want to make sure not to visit in during calendar years 2009 and 2010. it's just too depressing |
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| ACK cancel this thread and re-label it 2012 |
| posted by: horsebeater |
20:55 2.25.09 |
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| It's never too early! |
| posted by: simplicissimus |
23:46 2.24.09 |
Jindal? I'd say his stock was a bit higher -- at least with me -- before tonight. Man, was he wooden.
Palin? Please God. Please make it so.
Pawlenty? I think his 15 minutes ended sometime late August 2008.
Sanford? I like this guy's chances, though I don't know why.
Crist? I really think dude is gay. But he's got a pretty hot cougar wife and he's clearly staking out the center.
Thune? He's another Sanford. I think he could be a player, but I'm not sure why.
Mittens? He's got the money, but he really was an idiot to try to stake out the social conservative territory. Not only wa it an epic fail, it probably lost him some votes.
Eric Cantor? He's a Jew. But there's something slick about him I don't really like. Wait, did that sentence deserve a "but there's" or a "so there's". I kid, I kid.
Huckabee? The right's answer to Jerry Brown.
Ron Paul? The right's answer to Ralph Nader.
May, you really have to wonder about this.
He's a pretty graphic:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/02/starry-eyed-look-at-2012-republican.html |
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